Executive Summary The Eurozone is entering Q4 2025 with clearer signs of cyclical improvement. Composite PMIs have firmed above 52, supported by a steady recovery in real disposable income and a turning inventory cycle. GDP is now tracking 0.4–0.5% QoQ, well above the ECB’s earlier expectations. Monetary policy remains in “wait-and-watch” mode: the ECB is firmly on hold at a 2.00% deposit rate, with a high bar for further action. Inflation is close to target, labour markets remain resilient, and financial conditions are stable. Italy’s macro picture remains slower-moving. Confidence data show a gradual but uneven improvement: consumer sentiment is inching back, construction remains historically strong, but manufacturing continues to struggle with global overcapacity and the post-Superbonus drag. Domestic demand is improving, but overall GDP… Read more
Late-Cycle Without Signals: Why Market Stress Needs Quant Evidence
There’s a growing anxiety among market participants about where we stand in the economic cycle. The question keeps surfacing—what stage are we in, and what comes next? Yet any clear-cut answer is increasingly elusive. The conventional business cycle framework—relying on output, inflation, and employment—is proving inadequate. Since 2008, and especially after the COVID shock, policy distortions and geopolitical dislocations have severed the link between traditional macro indicators and market outcomes. To access the full content, head over to 20Quant website www.20quant.eu Best regards, — Federico Polese This document is the intellectual property of 20Quant and Simplify Partners. Subscribe here: PRICING | 20QuantGet free Turbulence Index alerts: turbulence-index-alerts —