There’s a growing anxiety among market participants about where we stand in the economic cycle. The question keeps surfacing—what stage are we in, and what comes next? Yet any clear-cut answer is increasingly elusive. The conventional business cycle framework—relying on output, inflation, and employment—is proving inadequate. Since 2008, and especially after the COVID shock, policy distortions and geopolitical dislocations have severed the link between traditional macro indicators and market outcomes.
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