Month: August 2024

This newsletter concludes that the decline in African oil exports, driven by internal challenges and global market shifts, is solidifying the United States’ role as the leading oil supplier to the West. Key African producers like Nigeria, Angola, and Libya are struggling with reduced output, exacerbating global supply issues and contributing to inflationary pressures, particularly in Europe. The U.S. shale revolution has further diminished Africa’s role in global oil markets, with significant implications for both African economies and global energy dynamics. Political Instability and Infrastructure Issues Impact African Oil Production Political instability, outdated legislation, and chronic underinvestment in infrastructure have led to a drastic decline in the oil production of African nations, thereby strengthening the United States’ dominance in the global energy market, a… Read more

The importance of U.S. elections for Europe The U.S. presidential election is not just a domestic event; its implications ripple across the globe, particularly in Europe. Rule-based competition and relations among nations is essential for economic and financial stability and prosperity, making the outcome of the U.S. election highly significant for Europe and presenting a new window of opportunity in equities. More than just identifying a winner, what markets truly need is a clear winner. As soon as possible. The presidential race between former president Donald Trump and current vice president Kamala Harris carries massive consequences for Europe, which faces two open conflicts at its doorstep. The continuity of political stances on these issues is critical. We hope that the usual post-election “seasonality” will… Read more

In recent discussions with industry leaders, it has become evident that long-term price expectations for copper remain significantly higher than current levels. This insight prompted us to re-evaluate, over the last few months, the macroeconomic and technical factors we typically consider when assessing copper prices to fine-tune our decision to increase our investment in copper. Market Volatility: Impact of the Tentative BHP/Anglo American Takeover The copper market experienced notable volatility following BHP’s attempted takeover of Anglo American a few weeks ago. This potential merger created short-term distortions in copper prices, sparking concerns over tighter control in a market dominated by a few competitors. In mid-May, copper futures surged to $500, marking a 25% deviation from the long-term positive market trend. Our indicators, particularly the… Read more